The City is About to Conduct its Annual Homelessness Survey. It Needs Your Help.

City officials speak at an event in 2023 about initiatives to address the city’s rising homeless population. Photo: NY City Council

By Jack Delaney | jdelaney@queensledger.com

What you need to know: 

  • The HOPE survey is an annual estimate of how many people in New York are homeless but living on the street, rather than in shelters.
  • The Department of Homeless Services relies on volunteers to carry out the citywide survey, which will take place on January 28.
  • Critics say the count is inaccurate and downplays the scale of the problem, while officials stress that the data remains vital for supporting those who are chronically unhoused.

Read on: 

In just a few weeks, thousands of volunteers will fan out across every borough to ask a simple question: “Do you have a place to sleep tonight?”

City agencies track the number of people staying overnight in shelters. But the purpose of the Homeless Outreach Population Estimate (HOPE) survey, now entering its 20th year, is to determine the size of another population: those in New York City who are currently sleeping in public spaces like streets and subway stations, eschewing the shelter system.

This year’s survey comes at an inflection point, as homelessness hits highs not seen since the Great Depression. As of October 2024, the last month on record, the Coalition for the Homeless estimates that around 350,000 New Yorkers were without homes. For reference, during the recession of the early 1990s, the city’s total population was just over 7 million, and about 6,000 people were using shelters each night. Today, with 8 million residents, that system is absorbing more than 130,000 people nightly. 

Searching for answers to explain this spike, economists have traced the problem back to the gradual loss of single occupancy rooms that began in the 1950s. Current pressures —  an historically low rental vacancy rate, a rise in asylum seekers, and a political atmosphere that makes non-punitive reform a poison pill — have exacerbated the issue. And while New York City is feeling the housing crisis acutely, it’s not an outlier. A nationwide point-in-time survey conducted last January by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development found that 771,480 people were homeless, which is the largest unhoused population the country has ever seen, up 13% from 2023. 

Last year’s HOPE census marshalled 1,181 volunteers, complemented by a small contingent of professional outreach staff. DHS reintroduced volunteers in 2023, after halting community involvement during the pandemic, and will continue to train volunteers virtually for the upcoming count.

But the survey, mandated by the federal government and organized by the city’s Department of Homeless Services (DHS), has not escaped controversy. On its website, the agency calls the initiative “one of the most methodologically rigorous efforts nationwide to estimate the number of individuals who are experiencing street homelessness” — yet it has drawn criticism in the past for allegedly lowballing the real figures.

In 2016, City & State reported that activists were disputing that year’s HOPE results, which had suggested that street homelessness was declining. Critics like Mary Brosnahan, then-head of the Coalition for the Homeless, decried the fact that the survey only includes New Yorkers who have been on the street for more than a year, and argued that it was a means for city officials to downplay the scale of homelessness.

“Any rational person would agree,” said Brosnahan at the time, “that sending volunteers out on a single, bitterly-cold night in the dead of winter and attempting to count the heads of those who appear homeless is a preposterous way to accurately gauge the magnitude of the problem.” 

Officials countered that the count is not meant to be a “comprehensive survey of all homeless people living on the city’s streets,” but rather a snapshot of a smaller subset struggling with particularly chronic homelessness. 

In an email to community boards this month, a DHS spokesperson stressed the pivotal role that the resulting data plays in guiding the agency’s operations. “We depend on community leaders like you,” they wrote. “Just one night of your time will help us collect information that is critical to our efforts to move New Yorkers from the streets and into safe, stable environments.”

The HOPE survey is scheduled for January 28, and will run from 10 p.m. until 4 a.m. If you’re interested in volunteering, you can find more information at https://hoperegistration.cityofnewyork.us/.

Congestion Pricing Launches, to Cheers and Boos

 

MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber holds a press conference on Sunday, in the hours before congestion pricing is rolled out. Courtesy of MTA

By Jack Delaney jdelaney@queensledger.com

What you need to know:

  • Congestion pricing took effect this week, charging drivers $9 to enter a ‘relief zone’ in Manhattan that starts at 60th Street.
  • The EZ Pass system crashed on the first workday, but the rollout was generally uneventful.
  • Traffic seemed better in the opening days, though the sample size is still small.
  • Outer borough politicians vowed to continue fighting the initiative, calling it a ‘scam.’
  • The MTA said it would use the $20 million generated by the toll to fund improvements to public transit.

Read on:

Congestion pricing launched last Sunday, one minute after midnight. The long-awaited — or long-dreaded, for some — initiative has been hotly contested, and was celebrated by a small crowd of public transportation enthusiasts, who amassed at the edge of the tolling zone to cheer on the earliest cars to pay the new fee. 

Yet after decades of tooth-and-nail fighting over whether the program would spell doom or deliverance for Manhattan, its first week has been surprisingly mundane. On Sunday, average travel speed for cars within the zone was initially higher than usual, which indicates that traffic was perhaps being reduced. But by later in the day it had slowed again, to below the benchmark from 2024, making it hard to gauge the toll’s impact on congestion.

The real test was Monday, a workday. Public data compiled by Joshua and Benjamin Moises into this visualiser (https://www.congestion-pricing-tracker.com/) shows that commute times were significantly faster during rush hour than previous weeks, though a major caveat is in order: a winter storm brought snow and icy conditions, so it’s difficult to establish congestion pricing as the cause. There were other hiccups, too. The EZ Pass system briefly crashed around noon, though it quickly came back online.

Janno Lieber, CEO of the MTA, cautioned against expecting instant results during a television spot that morning, and predicted that any disruptions would be temporary. He noted that despite the operation involving 1,400 cameras, over 110 detection points, over 800 signs and 400 lanes of traffic, sailing had been for the most part smooth. “We’re headed in the right direction,” he told NY1. “This is like everything in New York. We tend to argue about it in a very zero-sum way, and when it’s implemented, people adapt and move on.”

Others were less sage. City Council Member Bob Holden of Queens, who has sued the MTA over allegations that congestion pricing discriminates against the outer boroughs, predicted (perhaps wishfully) that it would soon be nixed again. Congressman Mike Lawler of Rockland County was of a similar mind, calling the toll a ‘scam’ and a “cash grab from hard-working, middle-class New Yorkers.” 

Sunday represented the culmination of a 70-year political rollercoaster ride, the outcome of which remained uncertain through the final stretch. Congestion pricing for the city was first floated in 1952 by young economist William Vickrey, who would later win a Nobel Prize, but it faced staunch opposition through the 70s despite support from Mayor John Lindsay. In 1980, a plan that would have prevented single-person cars from entering Manhattan was dropped, as was Mayor Ed Koch’s proposal in 1987 to charge drivers $10 to enter the borough. 

Congestion pricing gained real traction in the late 2010s, when Governor Andrew Cuomo sought to use it to shore up funding shortfalls. It was passed as part of the 2019 budget, with a timeline to be realized by 2021 — but it drew the ire of representatives from New Jersey and Staten Island, whose drivers were already absorbing high tolls from bridges and tunnels. Nonetheless, a $15 charge was greenlit in 2023. Yet Governor Hochul unexpectedly halted the rollout in June of last year, citing the need to recalibrate pricing, only to revive it in November. Even then, the saga continued. This past Friday, mere days before the toll was set to be rolled out, a judge denied a last-ditch attempt by the state of New Jersey to temporarily block it. And the imminent inauguration of President-Elect Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the toll, leaves its future unclear.

The MTA expects the new tolls to rake in $20 billion per year, which it will use to fund improvements to public transportation (see graphic). Courtesy of MTA

New York is the first city in the country to enact a congestion pricing scheme of this scale. Evidence from other jurisdictions around the globe that have similar tolls in place, such as London, which introduced the policy in 2003 and now charges the equivalent of $18, suggest that changes may be uneven. London saw an immediate reduction in traffic that gradually leveled out, though according to some correlative studies it has cushioned the impact of congestion — reducing it by around 10% between 2000 and 2012 — as the city grows. Stockholm, Milan, and Singapore have analogous tolls; in Milan, a charge of 5 euros led to around a 30% drop in car usage, which was still true four years after implementation.

For many supporters, improving commute times is only one expected benefit of the new tolls. Another target is reducing emissions, which by some estimates could be cut by up to 20% within the relief zone. Just as central are the MTA’s chronic budget woes, which congestion pricing is meant to ameliorate both through the toll money itself, as well as by nudging more New Yorkers to use the public transportation system. 

“We want to encourage trucks to do more deliveries at night, we want improvements to vehicle speeds especially for buses, we want to make sure that emergency response vehicles can get where they are going faster,” said Lieber. “And I hope drivers will take another look at the speed and convenience of mass transit.”

As it stands in NYC, congestion pricing entails a $9 toll once per day for drivers entering the relief zone in Manhattan, which runs southwards starting at 60th Street. But that fee is variable: if you don’t use EZ Pass, for example, you’ll be charged $13.50. The full fare only takes effect during peak hours — 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays, and 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekends — so overnight trips will cost drivers $2.25 for the former window, and $3.30 for the latter. The rush-hour price will increase to $12 in 2028, before rising to $15 in 2031.

A range of exemptions and discounts also apply. Low income drivers may qualify for a half-price toll, which kicks in after the first 10 trips each month. New Yorkers with disabilities that prevent them from taking public transit may be exempted from the toll entirely. And for-hire drivers, whose passengers pay a roughly $2 congestion fee for traveling into Manhattan, will be spared the toll but will pass on an additional $1.50 to their riders. 

Over the past decade, both Uber and Lyft have spent millions lobbying for congestion pricing. Per the New York Post, from 2015 to 2019 Uber alone spent $2 million on advocacy to promote the initiative, which proponents have projected will reduce traffic by up to 20% within the relief zone, in the hopes that it will spur more commuters using their own cars to rely on rideshare apps instead.

The MTA has announced that it will use the proceeds from the toll, which it projects will be $20 billion a year, to back bonds that will fund a range of transit upgrades. Eighty percent of the revenue generated will go to capital improvements on city subways and buses, 10% to the Metro-North Railroad, and 10% percent to the Long Island Rail Road. The initial projects will include signal modernization for the A and C trains in Brooklyn, plus new ramps for the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. 

“Congestion pricing will reduce traffic, improve our air quality, and increase street safety all while generating critical revenue to modernize the MTA’s subway and bus systems,” said Ydanis Rodriguez, commissioner of the Department of Transportation. “We are closely coordinating with the MTA on the rollout of congestion pricing this weekend and we continue to work to reimagine our streets, making it easier than ever to travel to and through Manhattan’s core without a car.”

Ultimately, the toll’s first week was a Rorschach test, as boosters and detractors alike claimed vindication. The former camp saw a miraculously uncongested city, hinting at a more climate-friendly status quo; the latter just saw snowy roads, and an unfair tax on drivers. Until more data arrives, the proverbial jury is out. 

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